As the year draws to a close, the box office gears up for an eventful holiday season, though overall revenue remains behind 2023’s post-pandemic and post-strike recovery pace. While the year-end lineup isn’t as packed as usual—with no Star Wars or Avatar films on the slate—Hollywood remains optimistic about holiday cheer translating into ticket sales.
The action kicks off on December 20, with Paramount’s Sonic the Hedgehog 3 and Disney’s Mufasa: The Lion King both premiering domestically. Rated PG, these films have strong family appeal, a critical advantage during the festive season.
Sonic 3 Leads the Pack
Sonic 3, part of the hit franchise from Paramount and Sega, is expected to dominate with an estimated $60 million opening weekend, with some predictions reaching $70 million. Meanwhile, Mufasa is projected to debut at $50 million. Both films will also launch internationally.
The holiday season is known for extended daily earnings, as every day feels like a weekend leading up to New Year’s Day. While Star Wars has set records during this period, other titles, including Avatar and its sequel, relied on longevity rather than massive openings to achieve their historic box office success.
Sonic’s Winning Formula
Directed by Jeff Fowler, Sonic 3 sees the return of familiar faces, including Jim Carrey, Ben Schwartz, James Marsden, and Idris Elba, along with new additions like Keanu Reeves as Shadow the Hedgehog. The plot follows Sonic, Knuckles, and Tails as they face a powerful new adversary, forcing them to form an unlikely alliance to save the planet.
Critics have embraced the film, praising Reeves’ casting, which helped boost its franchise-best Rotten Tomatoes score to 88%, compared to 64% and 68% for its predecessors.
Mufasa’s Origin Story
Directed by Barry Jenkins with music by Lin-Manuel Miranda, Mufasa: The Lion King serves as a prequel, exploring the bond between young cubs Mufasa and Taka. Their friendship faces a critical test when a new threat emerges, setting them on an adventure that shapes their destinies.
Blending live-action techniques with photorealistic CGI, the film features a star-studded voice cast, including Aaron Pierre, Kelvin Harrison Jr., and Mads Mikkelsen. Early reviews are mixed, with a 60% Rotten Tomatoes score, though it fares better than 2019’s The Lion King, which grossed over $1 billion globally.
Holiday Highlights
Other films joining the holiday race include A24’s The Brutalist, which held advanced screenings in Imax on December 18 before expanding to select theaters from December 20-22. On Christmas Day, Focus Features releases Nosferatu, a vampire fantasy starring Lily-Rose Depp and Bill Skarsgård, expected to open in the $15–$20 million range.
Several awards contenders are also leveraging the long holiday weekend, including Timothée Chalamet’s Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown and Nicole Kidman’s Babygirl from A24, both premiering on December 25. Meanwhile, Disney’s Moana 2 and Universal’s Wicked, Thanksgiving hits, are expected to keep cash registers ringing.
Industry Outlook
Disney continues its box office dominance, surpassing $2 billion in domestic ticket sales and $5 billion globally in 2024. Universal follows with over $1.7 billion domestically. Despite a 4.6% dip in domestic revenue compared to 2023, end-of-year numbers are improving, with North American revenue forecasted to reach $8.6–$8.8 billion.
Globally, 2024 is projected to close at $30.5 billion, down from 2023’s $34 billion. Analysts predict a rebound in 2025, with global revenue expected to climb to $33 billion.
